Ph.d. forsvar Elliot Simon

Supervisorer: Seniorforsker Michael Courtney, DTU Vindenergi - Professor Nicolaos A. Cutululis, DTU Vindenergi

Eksaminatorer: Seniorforsker Rozenn Wagner, DTU Vindenergi - Director Lars Landberg, DNV-GL - Senior Advisor Hannele Holttinen, Recognis Ltd. and Docent, Aalto University

Titel: Minute-Scale Wind Forecasting Using Lidar Inflow Measurements
Inaccuracies from numerical weather models, which resolve poorly on very short timescales (<1 hour) contribute a significant source of uncertainty in planning and operating power systems with high shares of wind fuelled generation. The effects from the errors can be seen throughout the entire supply chain of the energy market. Influences on the transmission system (which must match demand with supply), energy markets (which determine costs), and operators (which must internally balance their reserves) all contribute to reductions from optimal performance of the combined processes. 

Using forward looking remote sensors (such as a lidar) we can measure the incoming wind and use this information to produce a site specific, very short term wind and energy forecast (up to 15 minutes). 

DTU has developed a synchronised, scanning multi-LiDAR measurement system (WindScanners) which is capable of sampling at long range (up to 10 km) and measuring the 3-dimensional wind field. Using this, and similar remote sensing technologies, it may be possible to capture upstream wind and turbulence conditions, and then deduce a local energy production forecast up to 15 minutes in the future. Further, it should also be able to detect gusts and predict ramp events on a similar timeline.

This data would then be fed in real time to turbine/plant managers, grid operators, and energy traders in order to better react and plan for deviations from the numerical weather models. A reduction in the forecast error will act to both decrease the volatility and overall cost of electricity.

Tidspunkt

man 24 jun 19
13:00 - 16:00

Arrangør

Hvor

DTU Risø Campus
Frederiksborgvej 399 bld. 112, Niels Bohr Auditoriumn
4000 Roskilde